Well, that was 2025! Complete with the good, the bad, and the ugly…..
First off, I’m back from a bit of R+R with the family, which was long overdue. In short, Singapore was bloody hot (too hot if you ask me), but South Korea is a massive thumbs up. Don’t sleep on it.
Seeing the ‘other side’ always gives perspective, and talking to the locals, every country has its own challenges that they’re facing into.
Home ownership is extremely challenging in that part of the world, with limited land and ageing populations compounding the problem.
Still, when these countries look to develop, they throw everything at it (as they have the GDP to do so!) and it is a sight to behold. A whole block or even suburb is redeveloped at once – not building by building.
For us Wellingtonians, I think we should be giving ourselves a pat on the back.
It’s been a challenging year, and I think it’s fair to say we’ve been doing it tougher in the Capital than the other main centres around New Zealand.
Vital stats for the property game support this view, as per below (data is from Oct REINZ report, as later ones aren’t yet available):
On a national basis:
- Median house price is down 1.1% (to $786,000) year on year
- Time to sell is down a day to 41 days, again year on year.
- Total sales increased by 6.4% from last year.
- New listings are also increasing – 5.5% year on year.
While in the Wellington market:
- Median Price is down by 3.5% to $767,500 for Wellington.
- Time to sell is at 46 days – up five days from the same time last year.
- Total sales compared to Oct 2024 is actually down 3.1%.
The trends above tell an all too familiar story for Wellingtonians.
Stock levels remain high, and demand is still a bit diminished—although seemingly on the improve.
On the job security front, whilst the feedback I’m hearing is all purely anecdotal, things seem to have stabilised, and that all-important confidence should shine through and improve further over the summer period.
This aspect (employment) is of course critical to underpinning the property market.
The re-deployment of government workers upended by austerity has largely been completed. We will have less workforce overall, as the pull from Australia has reared its head, but also Christchurch has seen some favour as well.
‘For lease’ signs in the main shopping areas are getting a bit dusty too.
On top of this, who doesn’t get a giddy feeling when the banks announce their profits! Makes me all warm inside. Highlights for me:
- ANZ hitting $2.53b – 21% increase from last year!
- Westpac cracking $1.05b – up 13%.
The other three reported slight drops, possibly reflecting the stunted economy – possibly more reflecting the challenges of the common folk for a change this year.
The numbers are the numbers, and we can at least say we have a robust banking system based on the return they’re getting comparatively.
The other big buzz for 2025, which I’m sure you’ll be getting sick of hearing about, is AI.
First off it was coming for your job – now it’s just going to enhance the way you work.
But I’ve started dabbling, as we all should be, and can confirm it currently can’t write these monthly updates without a whole lot of tweaking.
Will it get there eventually? Probably, and I’m keen to ensure I am across it. I won’t be phoning it in just yet though.
Ultimately, it’s going to make our lives easier, so best be on the bus, rather than getting run over by it.
Looking forward, 2026 is an election year of course.
As a nation, we tend to vote governments out as opposed to voting them in, so has National / Act / NZ First done enough to keep hold of the reins? Polling looks tight at this point, and if the minor parties could stop shooting themselves in the face / foot it could go either way.
I think we’re all wanting stability regardless, and I’m not sure a three-way coalition provides that.
What do I see in store for the Wellington property market in 2026?
Well, I think we’ve stabilised, and as a result we’ll likely see some steady, albeit minor, growth in activity and values.
Buyers will continue to be in the box seat in regard to negotiations as well – that supply vs demand curve still favourable for them.
Being an election year, it may be full of words as opposed to actions, so direct stimulus for the capital will likely mirror the last couple of years.
Leave it to us locals, and we’ll sort it out, as we’ve got no other choice but to.
We’ll likely continue to see curveballs as a result of offshore volatility, and there’s very little we can do about that, so best not to spend too much time dwelling on the ‘what ifs’. Just wasted energy isn’t it?
At the time of writing, the first major bank has moved interest rates north—and I’m expecting to see the others fall into line on that, before see further stability for the majority of the year.
A lot of what’s to come will be based off inflation numbers, and with a new Reserve Bank Governor onboard, I think the mandate will get a lot more focus, at least initially.
Survive through ‘25 has been done – congrats – you made it through! Let’s bring on 2026 and the action it’ll no doubt bring.
Stay safe, and have a fantastic holiday break!