There’s been a fair bit on the go this month—and so in light of all the chatter I’ve been hearing about AI of late, there was a moment (a very brief moment) where I considered embracing ChatGPT and getting the interweb to help me write this update.
But no, when it comes to what’s happening in the market, it’s always best to come straight from the horse’s mouth.
Not that I don’t usually, but we’re going particularly raw and honest with this update—so strap in.
First off, as usual, we’ve got Wellington housing by the numbers:
- Compared to last year, property sales are down 1.5%—but compared to last month, they’re up 1.2%. No big variance in these categories, as we head through winter.
- Median house price in Wellington for July 2025 was down 1.3% compared to July 2024, and is also down slightly compared to last month (now at $755,000, from $760,000).
- Median days to sell is sitting at 53 – down 1 day from June.
What does it mean? We’re soldiering through the ‘down’ season as best we can, and starting to get prepped (and maybe even a little hopeful!) for a busy spring / summer period.
Back to the honesty theme… Let’s call a spade a spade—it’s been tough going for a lot of people out there, and Wellington has had its fair share of challenges as a result.
Although we’re not *technically* in a recession, it does feel a bit like one, particularly when I’m talking to bankers, business owners and accountants.
Heck, even over the last fortnight or so, we’ve seen some real business stalwarts decide enough was enough, and pull up stumps. And these are just the ones that have made the headlines. There could (read: will) be others.
- Hiremaster - 70 years in business, and if you’ve ever been to a major event in the Greater Wellington region, it’s likely Hiremaster had a hand in its delivery.
- Kitchen Things – nationwide retailer with 12 sites, majority will be closing whilst receivers work through the position. Established in ’86.
- Cheapskates – there’s some real childhood nostalgia with this one. Closing after 40 years – touted as a hobby that got out of control! Love it – will be missed….
- Fidel’s Cafe – this one hits close to home, as I love the place, and the owners even more. Absolute good roosters. After 30 years, and relocating to the former Havana Bar site. they’ve put the business up for sale, after relocating to the Havana Bar site.
While the list above is reflective of the hospitality and retail industry, construction is also battling, and government sector cutbacks (which I’ve covered previously) are also taking a toll.
It’s sobering to reflect on these, but I don’t want to look at them as tombstones. More a note for those in business to keep on going, because if you’re still in the game, it speaks volumes to your tenacity in a market that is keeping everyone on their toes.
It feels awful to say, knowing people impacted in the above businesses, but the reality is, what we’re seeing out there right now is purely a symptom of where we’re at in the wider economic cycle.
It won’t (and can’t) stay this way, and we’re already seeing some positivity coming through, including from the Reserve Bank of all places.
As part of its latest OCR announcement on 20 August, the RBNZ acknowledged there’ll be a short uptick in inflation, but it’s also realised a drop (or several) in interest rates is necessary to provide some much-needed stimulus for economy.
Traditionally, in times like these, it’s our agricultural sector which carries us through—and we’re seeing that now, with high meat and dairy prices generally the first sign that things are turning (although we all hate paying more for our staple of dairy at the supermarket).
It’s taking time for the rest of us to feel the benefit, as the industry has instead put those profits into debt reduction rather than spending it in the wider market, but it will happen.
It’s the first step into a more bountiful economic position for us as a country.
Could our recovery be derailed? Possibly, but I doubt it.
The actions we’re taking, economically speaking, are fairly measured. If anything, we’re a bit slow to react, but that’s reflective of the mechanisms (OCR sems to carry the lion's share here) we’ve got at our disposal, as touched on last time.
Tourism has also been improving, which is another stepping stone towards our recovery. According to Stats NZ, tourism numbers as at June 2025 were up 162,000 compared to the same period last year. Pretty bloody good.
Enticing migrants and university students back would be a good next step, and possibly encouraging some new film production to NZ shores if we can (potentially a bit selfish for Wellington, but we need it).
There’ll be other measures / strategies as well. The Reserve Bank is looking at capital requirements for the banks, and if these are relaxed, it may pave the way for easier funding for businesses.
Spring is almost sprung, and summer won’t be far away.
By Christmas, it will be good to take the chance to look back and reflect on where we’ve come from – hopefully by then we’ll be in a better position, with other improving metrics to focus on.
And on that note, you’ll get a break from me next month, as I’m taking the fam away for a cheeky break. Until then, go well of course!