Right now, Christchurch is a market that feels a little more confident than it did six months ago.
According to the latest REINZ figures:
- Canterbury's median house price increased 1.5% year-on-year to $700,500
- Christchurch City's median price lifted 0.7% to $691,000.
- Selwyn remained relatively resilient at $792,137, and Waimakariri sat at $720,000.
Across the region, first-home buyers continue to be one of the most active groups in the market, and new listings in Christchurch are attracting solid interest. That's not the picture of a market going backwards, it's the picture of a market gradually finding its feet again.
The latest OCR announcement on 2 September brought very little change, which was broadly expected.
Most banks kept rates where they were, with only one smaller lender trimming its one-year rate. Swap rates have edged up a little since then, but that doesn't necessarily flow straight through to retail mortgage rates.
The bigger story is that we appear to be well past the low point of this cycle. There’s still global uncertainty, and people are understandably cautious. But confidence doesn’t just return overnight—markets tend to improve gradually—and I think that’s what we're starting to see as we head into spring.
Our next OCR decision is coming up on 28 October, and right now it feels close to a coin toss between no change and a possible increase.
Consumer confidence will play a big role, but so too will the upcoming election.
One election policy attracting attention is National's proposal to significantly expand the income caps on the Kāinga Ora First Home Loan scheme.
If that goes ahead, we'll see more buyers able to access the market, which is likely to put upward pressure on house prices.
We've seen similar dynamics before. When Kāinga Ora's First Home Grant offered up to $10,000 for eligible buyers purchasing under specific price caps, those caps quickly became key price points in many areas. More purchasing power entered the market and, in my experience, prices responded.
Every market cycle is different, but history suggests that when buyer demand increases, property values often follow.
We're also having more conversations with people looking beyond residential property.
For those considering a business purchase or commercial property investment, the equity built up in a family home or rental property can sometimes create opportunities that may not have been possible a few years ago.
Every situation is different, but it's worth understanding what options may be available.
Lastly the Squirrel South Island crew have been active in the Queenstown Lakes region, helping clients progress building & development projects to support much-needed housing supply in a region where demand remains strong. It's an area we’re passionate about and seeing builders starting smart projects is excellent for sustained momentum across the district.
What’s clear to me is that spring has started with more momentum than many were expecting.
Whether you're looking at your first home, your next investment, a business purchase or a development opportunity, having the right advice matters.
If you'd like to talk through your situation, the team and I are always happy to help.
About the author: Nathan Miglani, Squirrel Managing Adviser - Christchurch & South Island
Let’s just say Nathan’s not one to do things by halves. Since arriving in NZ over a decade ago, he’s built a Christchurch-based Loan Market franchise from scratch, turned it into an award-winning brokerage, and taken out the title Loan Market’s #1 mortgage adviser in Australasia in 2022. After rebranding to NZ Mortgages in 2023—and doubling down on customer-first service—he teamed up with Squirrel in 2024 to bring even sharper mortgage and funding solutions to clients. Regularly featured in the media, Nathan’s the guy you want in your corner for anything from business lending, property investment to construction finance.