All eyes on interest rates: Key OCR dates for 2024/2025

Well, it's taken nearly three years, but it looks like our battle against inflation is finally almost over. 

The latest official inflation data, released this week, shows the numbers still tracking steadily downwards, with annual inflation now running at 3.3% for the year to June 2024—agonisingly close to the Reserve Bank's target band of 1% to 3%. 

Once the figure for the September 2023 quarter (a whopping 1.8%) drops out of that equation later this year, that should bring us comfortably back within range.

And, in theory, that means interest rate falls should follow soon after. 

Although interest rates are one of those things where nothing’s 100% certain until it’s actually happened, at least now it feels like there's some light at the end of the tunnel. 

Phew. 

So, the big question remains: when exactly will rates start to fall?

The Reserve Bank still hasn't budged on its prediction, with the official word being that it expects to hold the Official Cash Rate as is until sometime in 2025. 

But in light of where we're at with inflation, and all the undeniably weak economic data coming through right now, large parts of of the market are now predicting that first OCR cut will likely take place in November 2024—if not earlier. 

The good news is that whenever rates do start to fall, they should fall relatively quickly. 

We (along with the rest of New Zealand) will be keeping a close eye on the Reserve Bank and its OCR moves in the coming months, holding out for some good news. 

Here are the key OCR dates to watch for in 2024 and 2025*:

2024 

• 14^th August – Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
• 9^th October – Monetary Policy Review & OCR
• 27^th November – Monetary Policy Statement & OCR

2025

• 19^th February - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
• 9^th April - Monetary Policy Review & OCR 
• 28^th May - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
• 9^th July - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
• 20^th August - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR 
• 8^th October - Monetary Policy Review & OCR 
• 26^th November - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR

Whatever the next few months might bring, you can always catch our latest analysis on the situation over on the Squirrel blog, helping to make sense of what the RBNZ announcements mean for Kiwi homeowners and our housing market.

Need help making sense of interest rates?

We have a team of mortgage and property experts ready to help. Give us a call on 0800 21 22 30 or flick us a message here.

*There are two types of OCR announcement. Quarterly Monetary Policy Statements (in bold) are more in-depth – and may be where the RBNZ revises its forecasts. Monetary Policy Reviews are more of an interim update, or check-in, between MPS announcements.

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