Well, it's happened: after months of holding steady at 2.25%, the OCR is on the way up again.
As always, there were a range of complex factors that played into the RBNZ's decision on 8 July.
Falling oil prices mean the short-term inflationary impacts of the Middle East crisis have started to ease. But the flow-on effects—in terms of higher construction and agri costs—are expected to take a while to work their way through the system.
Until now, weak consumer has made it tough for businesses to pass rising costs on to customers, but as our economic recovery starts to gain traction (forecast to happen later this year) that could change, creating a risk that inflation might start to become embedded. So, starting the shift back towards a neutral OCR—estimated at around 3.00%—should help to keep inflation tracking back towards the midpoint of its 1-3% target range.
Wholesale interest rates (which spiked following the outbreak of the war in Iran) have also started to come down in recent weeks as oil prices have fallen. Fixed mortgage rates tend to follow wholesale rates, and while the RBNZ isn't keen on rates climbing further at this stage, it doesn't want them falling either.
The RBNZ has said to expect further increases over the coming months, but exactly when—and how quickly—they land will depend on how our inflation and broader economic data plays out.
With that said, here are the key OCR dates to watch for over the rest of 2026 and into 2027:
- 2 September 2026 - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 28 October 2026 - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 9 December 2026 - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 10 February 2027 - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 17 March 2027 - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 5 May 2027 - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 16 June 2027 - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
Whatever the next few months might bring, you can always catch our latest analysis on the situation over on the Squirrel blog, helping to make sense of what the RBNZ announcements mean for Kiwi homeowners and our housing market.
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*There are two types of OCR announcement. Quarterly Monetary Policy Statements (in bold) are more in-depth – and may be where the RBNZ revises its forecasts. Monetary Policy Reviews are more of an interim update, or check-in, between MPS announcements.