Interest rates have been tracking steadily downwards over the last year or so.
While the shift has been positive, bringing some relief to Kiwi households pushed to their limit by high mortgage costs, it's taking longer than expected for the benefit to flow through to the economy.
On 8 October—following a particularly bleak GDP result for the June 2025 quarter—the Reserve Bank cut the OCR from 3.00% (its 'neutral' estimate) to 2.50%, officially tipping us into a stimulatory rate environment.
Depending on how the data plays out from here, there *might* be another 0.25% reduction to come, but that remains to be seen.
And a word of caution to borrowers: this dip below neutral won't last forever.
Once the RBNZ is confident the economy is back on track, the OCR will return to around that 3.00% mark, with the one-year rate expected to settle close to 5.00%.
With that said, here are the key OCR dates to watch for over the remainder of 2025 and into 2026:
- 26th November - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 18th February 2026 - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 8th April 2026 - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 27th May 2026 - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 8th July 2026 - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
Whatever the next few months might bring, you can always catch our latest analysis on the situation over on the Squirrel blog, helping to make sense of what the RBNZ announcements mean for Kiwi homeowners and our housing market.
Need help making sense of interest rates?
We have a team of mortgage and property experts ready to help. Give us a call on 0800 21 22 30 or flick us a message here.
*There are two types of OCR announcement. Quarterly Monetary Policy Statements (in bold) are more in-depth – and may be where the RBNZ revises its forecasts. Monetary Policy Reviews are more of an interim update, or check-in, between MPS announcements.