Not one to pull punches, Rodney says it as it is—and he has the stats to back it up. As the founder and managing director of Strategic Risk Analysis Limited, Rodney has an impressive track record with analysing and predicting economic growth and movements in the housing and labour market.
Every quarter, the NZIER surveys a bunch of economic forecasters—from some of our largest financial institutions—to get their predictions of what's in store for our economy. Now, we know even the experts get it wrong sometimes, but how can they be getting it *this* wrong?
Historically, and particularly in the last few years, what happens with NZ interest rates has been really closely tied to what's happening with US rates. But with NZ's economy doing it really tough right now, guest writer Rodney Dickens thinks that's about to change.
The Reserve Bank has a tradition of being too slow to hike and cut and is likely to continue this tradition because of its poor forecasting and lack of understanding of what is going on at the coalface of the economy. The market, however, is usually quicker to respond — will it be the one to lead a fall in interest rates this year?
New research from the RBNZ highlights the four key indicators that (it believes) give us the best idea of where inflation is at, and where it's headed. But Squirrel guest blogger, Rodney Dickens, reckons it's the RBNZ's judgement that needs work more than anything.
Once inflation's got its hooks in, it can take years for interest rate hikes to trickle through and reverse the damage. But, as Rodney Dickens explains, a more proactive approach from the RBNZ could go a long way to solving that problem.
Price rises in recent years have hit some areas much harder than others - and Squirrel guest blogger, Rodney Dickens, reckons the government's got something to do with that (and not in a good way).
A mix of high residential construction levels and a falling population has proven a bit of a nasty cocktail for Auckland house prices. But they're the same factors that will usher in the region's recovery.
With sentiment across New Zealand's residential building sector at a new low right now, what are the implications for our construction sector, and the wider economy?
Recent interest rate hikes have hit the economy, hard. While the Reserve Bank forges on with aggressive OCR increases, the market is reading the signs.
The experts have been predicting a “soft landing” for the New Zealand economy - but are we in fact well past the point of no return on the road to recession?