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Every quarter, the NZIER surveys a bunch of economic forecasters—from some of our largest financial institutions—to get their predictions of what's in store for our economy. Now, we know even the experts get it wrong sometimes, but how can they be getting it *this* wrong?

Historically, and particularly in the last few years, what happens with NZ interest rates has been really closely tied to what's happening with US rates. But with NZ's economy doing it really tough right now, guest writer Rodney Dickens thinks that's about to change.

Between an OCR announcement, Budget 2024, and a bunch of other changes, it's been a huge month in New Zealand's property market. Squirrel founder, JB, explains what's been happening — and what it means for Kiwi homeowners - in his latest property market update.

The Reserve bank has grown more concerned about the pace with which inflation is falling in New Zealand, and have slightly delayed their pick for when they cut the official cash rate from the middle of 2025 into the second half. But will there be a chance that house prices will start falling while the OCR stays stuck at 5.50%?

Despite plenty of economic data showing enough damage has been done, the RBNZ is adamant rate falls won't be on the cards until 2025. And the reason for that, it turns out, is all down to a single number in the RBNZ's latest inflation forecast.

The Reserve Bank has a tradition of being too slow to hike and cut and is likely to continue this tradition because of its poor forecasting and lack of understanding of what is going on at the coalface of the economy. The market, however, is usually quicker to respond — will it be the one to lead a fall in interest rates this year?

At a time when more vendors are appearing, buyers are backing away. And it's not because of increased worries about interest rates or access to credit. Instead, worries about job security have taken centre stage.

Most commentators are picking it'll be late 2024 (or worse, 2025) before interest rates start falling again — but the Chief, David Cunningham, reckons there's a strong case for the RBNZ to begin dropping rates much sooner.

It's tough going out there at the moment, and we're all feeling it in one way or another. The housing market is subdued, and NZ economic data is painting a pretty bleak picture. So the question on everyone's minds is: when will interest rates start to fall again?

Despite hopes of interest rate declines, booming population growth, and changes in tax rules, fewer investors are looking to make another property purchase. So why is this the case?

According to bank economists, NZ’s latest inflation stats make it clear it’s far too soon think about dropping interest rates. But the Chief, David Cunningham, reckons the official numbers don’t paint an accurate picture of the situation.

New research from the RBNZ highlights the four key indicators that (it believes) give us the best idea of where inflation is at, and where it's headed. But Squirrel guest blogger, Rodney Dickens, reckons it's the RBNZ's judgement that needs work more than anything.