And there it is, finally - after 12 back-to-back increases - the break in interest rate hikes we’d all been waiting for. The question now is, when will rates start to fall again?
Back on 24th May, Adrian Orr said OCR hikes had done their job, and we'd hit the peak. So why then, six weeks later, are wholesale markets predicting we'll need another OCR hike, maybe two, in order to get inflation truly under control? Chief Squirrel, David Cunningham, shares his thoughts on this, and explains why he's pretty sure the wholesale markets have got it wrong.
The Reserve Bank said it'd take get us here, and with the latest GDP figures released this week, New Zealand is officially in recession. In his latest market update, JB shares his thoughts on what's to come in the economy, and with interest rates and the wider housing market.
There's a lot of debate happening right now as to whether rising immigration will be a force for good, or evil, when it comes to easing pressure on New Zealand's too-tight labour market. While many (the Reserve Bank included) are claiming it'll be a positive - a look back at history would seem to suggest otherwise.
The Reserve Bank has today pushed through a 0.25% increase to take us from 5.25%, up to its peak forecasted OCR of 5.50% - while also making it clear we've hit peak rates for this economic cycle.
There’s a pretty unanimous sense across the financial markets right now that there's another Official Cash Rate (OCR) hike in store for us this week. Chief Squirrel, David Cunningham, says that's the last thing we need.
Between a weakened construction sector, increasing migration and more businesses starting to retrench (both of which are helping to ease pressure in the job market), there are lots of signs out there to indicate that inflation’s coming under control. So, will there be another OCR increase?
The unemployment rate doesn’t just tell us where the economy’s at, or where inflation’s headed... it can actually also help to predict when house prices will take off again.
Even some of NZ's smartest economic minds hadn't picked that this latest spike in interest rates would be quite as swift and brutal as it's been. But according to Rodney Dickens, the writing was on the wall for all to see - so why weren't Kiwi borrowers warned?
Earlier today, the Reserve Bank made its second Monetary Policy announcement of 2023, opting to push through another double increase, and take our Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 4.75% up to 5.25%. So what does this latest OCR outcome mean?
Can the Reserve Bank get the balance right, bringing inflation under control without taking it too far, and sending us hurtling for a hard landing? Rodney Dickens says, if history's anything to go by, the chances aren't good.
The Reserve Bank has played things pretty much as expected with today’s Official Cash Rate (OCR) announcement, pushing through a 0.50% hike to take us from 4.25% to 4.75%.