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12 October 2022

Rodney's Ravings: Seldom has residential building been more important

With sentiment across New Zealand's residential building sector at a new low right now, what are the implications for our construction sector, and the wider economy?

28 September 2022

Interest rate outlook sours

It is somewhat ironic that at the same time as we are seeing first home buyers return to the market and investors pricking up their ears, prospects for interest rates have worsened.

16 September 2022

The return of the first home buyer

While there may be a shift underway in the minds of first home buyers, will the turning of the cycle be as swift going back as it was going back down?

31 August 2022

The endgame is upon us

While housing markets move in cycles, there is something very different about this downward leg of the housing cycle. But with the endgame upon us, will house prices stop falling?

19 August 2022

Monetary policy tightening – sort of

Changes made to the official cash rate strongly affect floating mortgage rates, but when it comes to fixed rates it is expectations for what will happen with monetary policy that truly matter.

10 August 2022

Rodney's Ravings: Economics works even if bank economists don't understand it

The experts have been predicting a “soft landing” for the New Zealand economy - but are we in fact well past the point of no return on the road to recession?

04 August 2022

Three big factors behind softening house prices set to ease by the end of this year

I’ve just released the results of my latest survey and the numbers are not much changed from where they were at the end of June. Buyers remain in the shadows and prices are falling all around the country.

25 July 2022

No recovery for the housing market yet – but seeds are being sown

On average over the past decade there have been around 81,000 dwellings sold each year all around New Zealand, but the way things are tracking we look set to see a fall to around 65,000 within the coming year. How will we know when things are going to turn around?

22 June 2022

The housing cycle has accelerated

Independent Economist Tony Alexander gives us a breakdown of what is happening in financial markets and the housing market.

09 June 2022

Vendors not backing down as house prices fall

When will house prices stop falling? No-one knows. But it looks like we are quite a long way off the bottom being reached for a number of reasons.

28 April 2022

The anatomy of a turning housing market

Here is a quick high level run-through of the main things happening in the residential real estate market on average in New Zealand.

14 April 2022

My main housing thoughts - Tony Alexander

Recently, I wrote a lengthy article listing the main things I am saying about the NZ residential property market at the moment – some of which I have been warning about for 12-18 months. Here are most of those points in summarised form.