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Young buyers are back in the market after being encouraged by lower house prices, greater listings numbers, higher deposits after 2-3 years of holding back from buying, a view that interest rates have about peaked, and a strong labour market bringing rising wages and high job security. So have investors joined them, and is FOMO back?

Sticking to the path it laid out for us in July, the RBNZ has opted to hold the OCR steady at 5.50% - and they're saying it might be 2025 before rates start to come down again. But global uncertainties, deflationary forces in China and the upcoming election has everyone holding their breath.

The coming weakness in our economy would imply at a minimum no recovery in the housing market and maybe a continuation of the weakness since late-2021. But there are many other factors in play — so will the recently developed upward momentum continue into 2024?

The RBNZ's hard-line approach to rate hikes seems to have inflation (slowly but surely) tracking in the right direction. But according to Squirrel guest blogger, Rodney Dickens, there's one factor in particular which is going to make it a long, tough road to get us back where we need to be.

As New Zealand holds its collective breath, waiting for interest rates to start falling again, here are the key OCR announcement dates you need in your diary for 2023 and 2024.

To say that the track for inflation and therefore interest rates going forward is relatively unclear would be an understatement. The rises in bank borrowing costs here have prompted banks to raise their fixed mortgage rates another 0.25% or so in the past couple of months despite no new rise in the official cash rate. So what will happen to mortgage interest rates, and are we headed into uncertain territory?

Fixed mortgage interest rates are unlikely to show any meaningful decline until very late in the year. Will that continue on through to 2024, or will it be a year of falling house prices, rental market pressure and higher selling prices?

And there it is, finally - after 12 back-to-back increases - the break in interest rate hikes we’d all been waiting for. The question now is, when will rates start to fall again?

The next little while is going to be tough going for a lot of Kiwi businesses, but goods manufacturers and raw materials suppliers are in for a particularly rough ride. Squirrel guest blogger, Rodney Dickens, explains how being hit by falling buyer demand on multiple fronts will mean a harsher recession for these businesses than most.

Earlier this week, one of NZ's big banks hiked its fixed term interest rates to levels that (many believe) are totally unjustified by current market conditions - and copped plenty of criticism for what was deemed nothing more than a "profit grab". Despite that negative reaction, a number of our other major banks have now followed suit. So, is that all the proof we need of the banking oligopoly in New Zealand? Chief Squirrel, David Cunningham, certainly thinks so.

With a falling number of listings, booming immigration and an end to rising mortgage interest rates, is FOMO starting to creep back into the New Zealand housing market?

Welcome to Live at the Nut Bar where Squirrel Founder John Bolton (better known as JB) and Chief David Cunningham sit down weekly to chew the fat about things like finance, the economy, investing and what's happening with mortgage interest rates. Knowing these two, there are plenty of laughs along the way as well as the odd debate, of course.