The unemployment rate doesn’t just tell us where the economy’s at, or where inflation’s headed... it can actually also help to predict when house prices will take off again.
We’re only 0.25% off the Reserve Bank’s (RBNZ’s) forecasted peak OCR – so will Kiwis be hit by other OCR hike, or have interest rates in New Zealand already peaked for this economic cycle?
With a great number of construction related businesses going into liquidation every week, negatives dominate in the house building sector and buyers need to apply extra caution as they contemplate getting a house built.
Even some of NZ's smartest economic minds hadn't picked that this latest spike in interest rates would be quite as swift and brutal as it's been. But according to Rodney Dickens, the writing was on the wall for all to see - so why weren't Kiwi borrowers warned?
Can the Reserve Bank get the balance right, bringing inflation under control without taking it too far, and sending us hurtling for a hard landing? Rodney Dickens says, if history's anything to go by, the chances aren't good.
Until recently, falling interest rates meant that no matter what you were investing in you almost couldn't go wrong... Asset prices across the board just kept going up. But those lucrative days are behind us.
I recall mentioning last year there was a good chance that the housing market would bottom out around the end of 2022 then stage a small recovery over 2023 with prices maybe rising by 5%. But then the inflation numbers came in.
The good news? Many signs seem to indicate that inflation is starting to come under control. The not so good news? Wage pressure could send us into a wage price spiral that prolongs the battle.
We all underestimated the extent to which prices would rise when the pandemic struck in early-2020. Now, almost everyone has underestimated the extent to which prices, and sales, are heading down now that the pandemic is over and the inflation resulting from excess stimulus needs to be brought under control.
With the Reserve Bank's predictions of a recession, an unemployment rate of 5.7% and high inflation, businesses and consumers alike have had to sharply rein in their spending plans on everything but groceries, including housing. But will the fear pass with time, or simply worsen?
Our unemployment rate tells us a lot about how the Reserve Bank is doing on its mission to keep inflation under control - and looking back at the numbers, it's not exactly a glowing picture.
This one's going to hit homeowners hard. Here's what to expect from mortgage rates, and what to do if your mortgage is coming up for renewal.