Adviser insight: Is Auckland going to go down?

Free fall ride

After nearly five years here at Squirrel, mortgage adviser Lindsay Hill has a lot of experience getting people to where they need to be in the property market. A lot of people left homework behind when they left university, and the idea of getting back into heavy research on a real estate market can be a bit too much to bear.

That's where the expertise of people like Lindsay is a light in the dark. He's well-equipped to look at the market, watch your situation and set you up with an excellent home loan. He's also an excellent source of information about the current Auckland market, and whether or not it's actually going to go down. Check out some of his thoughts below. 

Why is Auckland so inflated?

You'd have to be living under a rock (or just maybe somewhere without good Wifi) to know Auckland's property prices have gone through the roof in the last few years. But do you know exactly why this has been going on? Lindsay offers a few reasons:

"The biggest issue in the last few years has been offshore money invested into Auckland's property market, which pushed prices higher than people might have expected," he says.

"There's also an ongoing issue with supply. We have immigration inflows currently at 40,000 and not that many houses being built, which continues to push up prices."

This seems a bit at odds with a recent report from Housing Minister Nick Smith, who said on November 6 that Auckland's building consents were actually at a 10 year high. So where's the reality for first home buyers and investors?

Lindsay thinks that even if the ten-year high statement is accurate, there still isn't enough supply to meet demand - especially in special housing areas. These are spots where the government allows fast-tracking of property development, and he thinks there needs to be more construction green-lit in these areas to resolve problems with supply.

So what do buyers and investors do?

These issues with supply shortage mean that prices are still going to go up, Lindsay believes. However, constraints brought in by the RBNZ suggest everything's a little bit more relaxed than it was say, a year ago.

Lindsay has noted that some agencies are seeing fewer sales across the board, and it's having a slight slowdown impact on Auckland.

"The drop in recent results might mean they're paying 10 per cent more than a year ago rather than 20 per cent more than a year ago," he says, "but ongoing demand means people will still pay."

It means that if you're after a great property investment, you have to pick the right area. Lindsay says that a lot of mum and dad property investors are picking up houses in regional centres like Tauranga and Hamilton, but even in these areas they have to be careful to get a place with the right yields.

Also incredibly important is that people get the right home loan.

"Don't future-guess yourself," Lindsay tells us. "Interest rates are basically at all time lows, anyone sitting on their hands could actually miss the boat."

There's no one size fits all solution for the supply and price issues going on at the moment. But if you want to understand it better, that's what we're here to help you with.